Florida Economic Forecast – Sunny Days
Dr. Hank Fishkind – With over 30 years of experience in the field of economic analysis and forecasting, Dr. Fishkind is a well-regarded economist in the state of Florida.
Dr. Fishkind recently discussed broad economic markets and narrowed down to Florida economics, giving his opinion of what Floridians might expect in the upcoming year.
Tourism is expected to increase significantly due to the recent declines in oil & gas prices. On average, Americans are estimated to realize over $1,000 in savings this year compared to 2014 – if fuel prices remain this low, which he thinks they may. More discretionary income for each household means more trips out of the cold and into the Sunshine State! This increase in tourism exposure for Florida is expected to boost real estate sales throughout 2015, as well as current property values.
- He predicts the state’s population will rise by 350,000 this year, payrolls will rise by 230,000 and housing starts will hit 125,000.
- In the short term, historically low interest rates have added fuel to the nation’s ongoing economic recovery.
- For most U.S. consumers, the low interest rates have been manifest in 30-year mortgages for owner-occupied homes, which continue to hover between 3 7/8 and 4 percent — the lowest level since the early 1950s.
- Meanwhile, in more than half of all U.S. states, housing prices are now at, or within, 10 percent of their pre-crisis peak, according to CoreLogic, a leading property information service.
- Florida, one of the states hardest hit by the collapse of housing markets seven years ago, remains 33.5 percent off its peak, according to CoreLogic.
- Even there, though, Fishkind speaks of an economic silver lining to what seems like a negative statistic for Florida’s growth over the next few years.
In Southwest Florida
The west coast of Florida, from Hillsborough County down through Collier County, has benefited from in-migration and will see even more in 2015, Fishkind believes.
Most sectors of the job market are now growing as well, fueled in part by the increased in-migration, Fishkind said.
The strongest employment gains have come in sectors such as construction, trade, business and professional services, education, health care and leisure and hospitality.
Florida 2015
So, how does an overall positive outlook for Florida’s economy impact investors? Very well in 2015, according to Dr. Fishkind, for those that benefit from added tourism and housing in Florida. And for the U. S. stock market overall, Dr. Fishkind expects a great deal of volatility throughout 2015, but if investors can “stomach” the ebbs and flows, he does predict high, single-digit returns for the year. In 2016-2017, markets might finally begin to slow down.